It may turn out to be a race to the finish for both traditional and crypto markets, if historical data is anything to go by.
Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are betting on a solid month for BTC price action, as November traditionally sees strong gains for United States stocks.
Data shows that November has been the best performing month for the S&P 500 since 1985.
November 2021 has stiff competition
With “Uptober” already the biggest month in terms of gains for Bitcoin in 2021, odds are stocks could act as a catalyst for further upside in “Moonvember.”
Median S&P 500 progress in November over the past 35 years has been just over 2% — making it the only month to achieve those median returns.
At the same time, over 70% of years have seen positive returns, and Bitcoin’s history is similar.
In November, BTC/USD has ended up higher than when it started with the exception of just two years: 2018 (-36.5%) and 2019 (-17.2%).
2020 conversely saw 43% gains, leaving the door open for a rematch in line with expectations.
As Cointelegraph reported, these predict a volatile but ultimately extremely beneficial month as Bitcoin approaches its Q4 peak.
“Highest monthly close in history. Congrats Bitcoin and congrats y’all,” an optimistic TechDev summarized on Nov. 1.
“We are now headed toward our second monthly RSI peak like every cycle before. Nowhere near a top. Trust the indicators.”
TechDev is eyeing either copycat retrace of 2017’s top sequence or that of 1970s gold, both apt to send BTC/USD far beyond $100,000.
Good morning bulls.
Quite the month ahead for #Bitcoin.
About to find out which path we’re on. pic.twitter.com/qbvPIvWLC2
— TechDev (@TechDev_52) November 1, 2021
Bumps in the road for stocks and Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s relationship to traditional markets has come into examination in recent months as the cryptocurrency begins to carve out its own path away from macro.
Related: ‘Uptober’ closes at record high in best month of 2021 — 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week
A test of trader resolve may come as soon as this week as the Federal Reserve prepares new comments on asset purchase tapering.
For Bitcoin, the decision whether or not to allow a regulated exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S. this month may yet steer price action far away from predictions — especially if a rejection is seen.
As proponents point out slowness in following other countries, VanEck — one of over 40 applicants — has revealed it is mulling applying to launch a spot ETF in Australia.